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NUCOR CORP (NUE)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue was $7.83B and GAAP diluted EPS was $0.67; adjusted diluted EPS was $0.77, with EBITDA of $0.70B .
  • Results beat S&P Global consensus on adjusted EPS ($0.77 vs $0.659*) and revenue ($7.83B vs $7.26B*), driven primarily by volume strength in bar and sheet; management cited a volume-driven beat vs March guidance .
  • Sequential outlook improved: management expects Q2 2025 earnings to increase across all segments, with the largest lift in steel mills on higher sheet and plate pricing .
  • Near-term catalysts: backlog strength (mill backlogs up >30%; steel products up ~25%), broader Section 232 enforcement and trade remedies, and ongoing growth investments (rebar micro mill, bar melt shop, coating lines, towers & structures) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Volumes accelerated: total outside shipments rose 13% QoQ and 10% YoY; steel mill shipments +14% QoQ and +10% YoY, with bar mill shipments +21% QoQ and +20% YoY .
    • Backlogs strengthened: mill backlogs up >30% QoQ and ~25% YoY; steel products backlogs up ~25% QoQ with joist and deck extending into Q4, supporting visibility and margin resilience .
    • Strategic progress: Brandenburg plate mill achieved ABS certification and first wide X70 API line-pipe trials; “25% of Q1 shipments were products Nucor could not offer before” . Quote: “It’s hard not to be optimistic about Nucor’s future” .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Price headwinds: average sales price per ton fell 12% YoY (and 2% QoQ), compressing margins despite volume gains .
    • Start-up costs and one-time charges: pre-op/start-up costs were $170M ($0.56/share); plus $29M one-time losses/impairments ($0.10/share) tied to closures/repurposing .
    • Raw materials headwinds: pretax earnings declined QoQ on lower DRI pricing and higher operating expenses in scrap processing; scrap costs rose ~3% QoQ; energy and consumables pressured conversion costs YoY .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$8.14 $7.08 $7.83
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$3.46 $1.22 $0.67
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($USD)N/AN/A$0.77
EBITDA ($USD Billions)$1.50 $0.75 $0.70
MarginsQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
EBITDA Margin %18.36%*10.53%*8.84%*
Net Income Margin %10.38%*4.06%*1.99%*
EBIT Margin %14.48%*5.47%*4.14%*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Pretax Earnings ($USD Millions)Q1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Steel mills$1,102 $169 $231
Steel products$512 $329 $288
Raw materials$9 $57 $29
Corporate/eliminations($398) ($165) ($263)
Total$1,225 $390 $285
KPIsQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Shipments to outside customers (000s tons)6,224 6,058 6,830
Steel mills shipments (000s tons)5,890 5,650 6,463
Avg scrap & substitute cost per gross ton ($)421 381 394
Steel mill operating rate (%)82% 74% 80%
Cash from operations ($USD Millions)$460 N/A$364
Capital expenditures ($USD Millions)$670 N/A$859
Share repurchases (shares, avg price)N/A~2.1M at $149.81 ~2.3M at $133.17
Cash & short-term investments ($USD Billions)N/A$4.14 $4.06

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EPSQ1 2025$0.50–$0.60 (adjusted) Actual: $0.77 (adjusted) Raised vs guidance (beat)
Earnings (directional)Q2 2025NoneEarnings to increase across steel mills, steel products, raw materials; largest in steel mills on higher sheet/plate prices Raised sequential outlook
DividendQ2 2025 pay date$0.55/share declared Dec 2024 $0.55/share payable May 12, 2025 (record Mar 31) Maintained
Revolving credit facilityCurrent$1.75B capacity (prior) Increased to $2.25B, maturity Mar 11, 2030; undrawn Increased liquidity

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Tariffs / trade enforcementAdvocated CORE trade case; Section 232 support; imports pressuring margins Applauds Section 232 reinstatement/broadening; domestic imports drop <20%; expects enforcement to temper unfairly traded materials Strengthening enforcement tailwind
Start-up costs$168M in Q3; $594M FY 2024; expected elevated into 2025 $170M in Q1; expect similar levels to recent quarters through 2025 Persistent near-term headwind
Brandenburg plate millEBITDA-positive run rate target by year-end; record performance in Sep ABS certification; first wide X70 trials; ~150–160k ton pace; confidence in EBITDA-positive by summer 2025 Accelerating ramp/qualification
Demand/backlogsJoist & Deck backlogs strong into Q1’25 Mill backlogs +30% QoQ; steel products +~25%; structural backlog at record levels Improving visibility
Coated sheet expansionsBerkeley auto galv by mid-2026; Crawfordsville galv/prepaint late 2025 Coating projects on-track; CORE case supports coated demand Capacity coming online
Raw materials pricing/costsScrap down QoQ in Q3’24; raw materials earnings up in Q4 DRI realized pricing lower; scrap costs up ~3% QoQ; expect moderating scrap and cost improvements Mixed near-term
Decarbonization/energyNuScale/Helion investments; ExxonMobil CCS; low GHG intensity Sustainability report update; industry-low GHG intensity; continued progress on clean energy/raw materials Strategic progress

Management Commentary

  • “Despite recent financial market volatility, Nucor is seeing solid demand… Our healthy balance sheet and diverse product portfolio position us well” – Leon Topalian .
  • “Backlogs rise over 30% in our steel mill segments and rise nearly 25% in steel products… pricing relatively stable” – Leon Topalian .
  • “Start-up costs were $170 million or $0.56 per share… the steel mill segment generated adjusted pretax earnings of $241 million… bar shipments rose 21% QoQ and 20% YoY” – Stephen Laxton .
  • “ABS certification… first wide X70 trials… customers are excited for Brandenburg to give them a domestic supply chain option” – Brad Ford .

Q&A Highlights

  • Start-up costs outlook: Expect similar levels as recent quarters through 2025; ramp rates factor in several projects coming online .
  • Plate mill ramp: ABS certification achieved; wide X70 API trials underway; EBITDA positive run rate expected by summer .
  • Guidance cadence: Q2 details saved for mid-quarter, but pricing math “dialing in the right direction” on flat-rolled .
  • Tariff impacts/mitigation: Flexible raw materials sourcing via DJJ, water-access mill footprint, and diversified levers limit negative impact; West Virginia equipment exposure minimal .
  • Margin drivers: Scrap +3% QoQ and higher energy/consumables drove squeeze; lag effects in pricing realization .
  • Calendric effect: Q1 had 95-day quarter; shipping days contributed; corporate eliminations rise with profitability/backlogs .

Estimates Context

MetricS&P ConsensusActualSurprise
Adjusted EPS ($USD)$0.659*$0.77 +$0.11*
Revenue ($USD Billions)$7.26*$7.83 +$0.57*
EPS – # of estimates10*——
Revenue – # of estimates7*——

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Management attributed the beat mainly to stronger-than-expected volumes (bar and sheet) vs March guidance; one-time charges were nonrecurring .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Volume-driven beat with strong backlog momentum supports a positive Q2 setup; largest sequential lift expected in steel mills on sheet/plate pricing .
  • Margin recovery potential as pricing catches up and start-up costs normalize; watch scrap/energy trends and CORE/Section 232 enforcement for pricing stability .
  • Brandenburg’s accelerating ramp and qualifications expand plate capability set into higher-value applications (shipbuilding, API line pipe), a structural mix upgrade .
  • Downstream resilience: Joist & Deck backlogs extended; tubular and metal buildings improving; margins expected “well above pre-pandemic” despite pricing lags .
  • Capital allocation remains disciplined: $2.25B undrawn revolver; share repurchases ongoing; quarterly dividend maintained at $0.55 .
  • Trade policy is a key catalyst: broader Section 232 application and antidumping actions should curb unfair imports, benefiting domestic pricing/utilization .
  • Near-term action: monitor mid-quarter Q2 guidance, coated sheet pricing trajectory, and bar/plate shipment strength; medium-term thesis anchored on capacity additions and value-added mix shift .